Wound up mostly picking the favorites, though almost none of the major awards are a lock for anyone this year. I’m counting on Dune to sweep the technical awards, otherwise I think there’s going to be a big mix of winning films. Maybe my biggest gamble is Best Original Song–looks like No Time to Die is poised to win, but I think the Academy is going to give Lin Manuel his EGOT.
Of the 38 total films nominated (not including the shorts), I wound up seeing only 15 of them before the awards show. And for the first time in years, I didn’t catch all 10 of the Best Picture nominees… only got 8.
Anyway, here’s the full list of my predictions. Correct predictions will be marked with “★”.
Best Motion Picture of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Coda
Actual Winner: Coda
Achievement in Directing ★
Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actual Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role ★
Predicted Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Actual Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role ★
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Actual Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role ★
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Actual Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role ★
Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur, Coda
Actual Winner: Troy Kotsur, Coda
Adapted Screenplay ★
Predicted Winner: Siân Heder, Coda
Actual Winner: Siân Heder, Coda
Original Screenplay ★
Predicted Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Actual Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Achievement in Cinematography ★
Predicted Winner: Greig Fraser, Dune
Actual Winner: Greig Fraser, Dune
Achievement in Costume Design ★
Predicted Winner: Jenny Beavan, Cruella
Actual Winner: Jenny Beavan, Cruella
Achievement in Film Editing ★
Predicted Winner: Joe Walker, Dune
Actual Winner: Joe Walker, Dune
Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling ★
Predicted Winner: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Actual Winner: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Achievement in Production Design ★
Predicted Winner: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune
Actual Winner: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score) ★
Predicted Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dune
Actual Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dune
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Predicted Winner: Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto
Actual Winner: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, “No Time to Die,” No Time To Die
Achievement in Sound ★
Predicted Winner: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, Dune
Actual Winner: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, Dune
Achievement in Visual Effects ★
Predicted Winner: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, Dune
Actual Winner: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, Dune
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Encanto
Actual Winner: Encanto
Best Documentary Feature ★
Predicted Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Actual Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Best International Feature Film of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Drive My Car
Actual Winner: Drive My Car
Best Animated Short Film
Predicted Winner: Robin Robin
Actual Winner: The Windshield Wiper
Best Documentary Short Subject ★
Predicted Winner: The Queen of Basketball
Actual Winner: The Queen of Basketball
Best Live Action Short Film ★
Predicted Winner: The Long Goodbye
Actual Winner: The Long Goodbye
2022 Results:
21 / 23 (91.3%)
Previous Results:
2021: 16/23 (69.6%)
2020: 20/24 (83.3%)
2019: 16/24 (66.7%)
2018: 22/24 (91.7%)
2017: 16/24 (66.7%)
2016: 15/24 (62.5%)
2015: 17/24 (70.8%)
2014: 18/24 (75.0%)
2013: no predictions
2012: 19/24 (79.2%)
2011: 11/24 (45.8%)
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