95th Academy Awards Predictions

My least confident predictions yet. Only wound up seeing six and a half of the Best Picture nominees this year. Plus I made these predictions while I was day drinking in a Milwaukee bar in between the escape room and mini putt during my bachelor party. And I decided a long time ago I was picking Marcel the Shell for anything it got nominated for no matter what.

So with that, my picks are all locked in at Gold Derby and viewable at the link below. (The nominees are listed in order of what I think their odds are, with the number one spot showing my actual pick.

https://www.goldderby.com/view-predictions/ryankerch/oscars-winners-2023-predictions/

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94th Academy Awards Predictions

Wound up mostly picking the favorites, though almost none of the major awards are a lock for anyone this year. I’m counting on Dune to sweep the technical awards, otherwise I think there’s going to be a big mix of winning films. Maybe my biggest gamble is Best Original Song–looks like No Time to Die is poised to win, but I think the Academy is going to give Lin Manuel his EGOT.

Of the 38 total films nominated (not including the shorts), I wound up seeing only 15 of them before the awards show. And for the first time in years, I didn’t catch all 10 of the Best Picture nominees… only got 8.

Anyway, here’s the full list of my predictions. Correct predictions will be marked with “★”.

Best Motion Picture of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Coda
Actual Winner: Coda

Achievement in Directing ★
Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actual Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role ★
Predicted Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Actual Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role ★
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Actual Winner: Will Smith, King Richard

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role ★
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Actual Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role ★
Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur, Coda
Actual Winner: Troy Kotsur, Coda

Adapted Screenplay ★
Predicted Winner: Siân Heder, Coda
Actual Winner: Siân Heder, Coda

Original Screenplay ★
Predicted Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Actual Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Achievement in Cinematography ★
Predicted Winner:  Greig Fraser, Dune
Actual Winner: Greig Fraser, Dune

Achievement in Costume Design ★
Predicted Winner: Jenny Beavan, Cruella
Actual Winner: Jenny Beavan, Cruella

Achievement in Film Editing ★
Predicted Winner: Joe Walker, Dune
Actual Winner: Joe Walker, Dune

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling ★
Predicted Winner: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Actual Winner: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Achievement in Production Design ★
Predicted Winner: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune
Actual Winner: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score) ★
Predicted Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dune
Actual Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dune

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Predicted Winner: Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto
Actual Winner: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, “No Time to Die,” No Time To Die

Achievement in Sound ★
Predicted Winner: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, Dune
Actual Winner: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, Dune

Achievement in Visual Effects ★
Predicted Winner: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, Dune
Actual Winner: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Encanto
Actual Winner: Encanto

Best Documentary Feature ★
Predicted Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Actual Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Best International Feature Film of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Drive My Car
Actual Winner: Drive My Car

Best Animated Short Film
Predicted Winner: Robin Robin
Actual Winner: The Windshield Wiper

Best Documentary Short Subject ★
Predicted Winner: The Queen of Basketball
Actual Winner: The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short Film ★
Predicted Winner: The Long Goodbye
Actual Winner: The Long Goodbye

93rd Academy Awards Predictions

2020 was a weird year–no need to elaborate further. I think that’s going to translate to a weird, jumbled group of winners and a few notable upsets. Expect the biggest awards of the night to each go to a different movie. As always, my predictions are below and I’ll update with the actual winners as the night goes on.

Best Picture
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Actual Winner: Nomadland
Nomadland seems to be the overwhelming favorite to win. It’s garnered the most critical praise and has racked up an impressive list of awards already. And while the Academy has definitely embraced smaller indie pictures recently (see Moonlight and Parasite), Chicago 7 just seems to check off more of the boxes Best Picture winners seem to have. It’s well-crafted; it’s well acted; it’s political but not radical; it’s historical but timely. I think we’re going to see a Chicago 7 win a la Argo, Spotlight, or Green Book.

Best Director★
Predicted Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Actual Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Considering how many different hands Chicago 7 passed through before it was finally made, there’s no way Best Director is going to my Best Picture prediction. With Nomadland, Chloe Zhao does an incredible job crafting a simple, but elegant film with big emotions. Having won virtually every other director award in the industry this year, she’s getting the Oscar too.

Best Actress
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Actual Winner: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Continuing my prediction that the biggest awards of the night are all going to different films, this is Promising Young Woman‘s best shot at an Oscar. The main character is both a traumatized, grieving friend and an anti-creep vigilante, while hiding both from those around her. Carey Mulligan is practically playing three different roles simultaneously, and she absolutely pulls it off.

Best Actor★
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Actual Winner: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Chadwick Boseman was bound to win an Oscar at some point, but with his tragic death last year, this will be his last chance. It’s certainly not a sympathy vote though, as it’ll be well-earned for his performance in Ma Rainey. But he also deserves it as a cap on an iconic, far-too-short career.

Best Supporting Actress★
Predicted Winner: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Actual Winner: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Probably the most memorable performance of any this year.

Best Supporting Actor★
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Actual Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Rounding out my theory that the top 6 awards are all going to different films, Daniel Kaluuya seems to be the standout among the nominees. Normally two actors nominated in the same category for the same film cancel each other out, and no disrespect to LaKeith Stanfield, but Kaluuya is the star of this movie.

92nd Academy Award Predictions

Doing it a little differently this year: going to do a “Will Win/Should Win” list. Whatever I have listed as “Will Win” means that’s what I think will win the award (and my pick for my various Oscars pools.). “Should Win” is my personal choice and what I’d have voted for if I was a member of the Academy. I’ll update with the actual winners after the show (★indicates correct prediction).

Best Picture
Will Win: 1917
Should Win: Parasite
Actual Winner: Parasite

1917 is the safe bet: it’s a war movie, gorgeously shot, and has already won plenty of the other major awards this season. Parasite is the one that should win. Easily my favorite movie of last year, and the one that left the biggest impression. I’ve been describing it as a South Korean Coen Brothers’ movie: it’s a perfect blend of heartfelt drama, intense violence, and dark comedy. Though it’s ‘haves vs. have-nots’ theme transcends any cultural or language barriers, I don’t think the Academy is ready to award Best Picture to a non-English film.

Best Director
Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917
Should Win: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Actual Winner: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Same rationale as above. Also, I can’t help but think the Academy voters category take into account the nominee’s full filmography (not just their nominated film) more so than any other category. With that, Mendes is the safe bet.

Best Actress
Will Win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Should Win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
★Actual Winner: Renée Zellweger, Judy

Honestly, I haven’t seen Judy yet. But from the trailers I’ve seen and the articles I’ve read, this should be a shoo-in.

Best Actor
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Should Win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
★Actual Winner: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

I liked Joker, I really did. But it’s gotten way too much attention for no good reason. It’s not as controversial as some want you to think: it is an R-rated crime drama after all. Adults can handle moral ambiguity and glorified violence. And it’s not a particularly great take on the character of the Joker, either. It’s just the same angry white guy revenge fantasy we’ve seen in The King of Comedy, Falling Down, Fight Club, etc.–just dressed up as a clown. No, the real best actor this year was Adam Driver. Between The Rise of Skywalker, The Report, and Marriage Story, Driver deserves at least an Oscar and a half. The supporting cast might have some of the more memorable moments, but it’s Driver’s performance alone that kept me from tuning out of what would otherwise have been a pretty boring movie.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Should Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
★Actual Winner: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

I can’t say anything that hasn’t already been said. Dern steals every scene she’s in. She’s cleaned up at all the other awards, and deservedly so.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
★Actual Winner: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Another one that should be a shoo-in, not necessarily because of Pitt’s performance, but because of the lack of any real competition. Hanks as Fred Rogers is almost so on-the-nose it’s uncomfortable, Pesci and Pacino from The Irishman cancel each other out, and no one actually watched The Two Popes. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was fun, and Pitt was the center of that fun. He deserves it.

90th Academy Award Predictions

You know the drill…

Best Picture ☆
Ryan’s Pick: The Shape of Water
Actual Winner: The Shape of Water

Actor in a Leading Role ☆
Ryan’s Pick: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Actual Winner: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Actress in a Leading Role ☆
Ryan’s Pick: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Actual Winner: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Actor in a Supporting Role ☆
Ryan’s Pick: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Actual Winner: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Actress in a Supporting Role ☆
Ryan’s Pick: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Actual Winner: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Director ☆
Ryan’s Pick: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Actual Winner: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Animated Feature ☆
Ryan’s Pick: Coco
Actual Winner: Coco