95th Academy Awards Predictions

My least confident predictions yet. Only wound up seeing six and a half of the Best Picture nominees this year. Plus I made these predictions while I was day drinking in a Milwaukee bar in between the escape room and mini putt during my bachelor party. And I decided a long time ago I was picking Marcel the Shell for anything it got nominated for no matter what.

So with that, my picks are all locked in at Gold Derby and viewable at the link below. (The nominees are listed in order of what I think their odds are, with the number one spot showing my actual pick.

https://www.goldderby.com/view-predictions/ryankerch/oscars-winners-2023-predictions/

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Best Movies of 2022

Here they are: the best movies of 2022 according to the experts at Ryan Writes Stuff.

5. Glass Onion. A sequel that is on-par with the original, and a mystery that’s worth repeat viewings. Even if future installments of this franchise are only half as good as the first two, I hope Rian Johnson and Daniel Craig make these movies forever. ★★★★☆

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4. Top Gun: Maverick. A sequel that is far superior to the original, and one of the best-shot action movies of all time. Relying on practical effects, throwing the actors into real jets, and top-notch cinematography from Claudio Miranda prove that ‘silly action movies’ can be incredible if you take the time to do them right. ★★★★☆

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3. The Fabelmans. Spielberg’s semi-autographical film might be boring to anyone who didn’t grow up making home movies, but it’s easily the most sincere movie he’s made. Essential viewing for any Spielberg fan (or anyone else who earned the Cinematography Merit Badge in Boy Scouts 3 times like me). ★★★★☆

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2. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On. Though he’s tiny, Marcel packs big emotion in a gorgeously-shot, thoughtful, funny, and heartfelt movie. Marcel is the hero we needed this year, and is absolutely as fearless as Lesley Stahl. ★★★★★

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1. Everything Everywhere All At Once. The most bonkers, touching, funny, stupid, brilliant movie of the year. It literally is everything everywhere all at once, and the only multiverse movie worthy of this list (sorry, Marvel). I won’t say much more, since it’s best to go into this one blind. Sit back, and let it take you on its ride. ★★★★★

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Have to acknowlege a couple of movies I haven’t seen yet, but could have made this list: The Banshees of Inisherin and Empire of Light. Thoughts on those might come in my annual Oscar’s preditions.

94th Academy Awards Predictions

Wound up mostly picking the favorites, though almost none of the major awards are a lock for anyone this year. I’m counting on Dune to sweep the technical awards, otherwise I think there’s going to be a big mix of winning films. Maybe my biggest gamble is Best Original Song–looks like No Time to Die is poised to win, but I think the Academy is going to give Lin Manuel his EGOT.

Of the 38 total films nominated (not including the shorts), I wound up seeing only 15 of them before the awards show. And for the first time in years, I didn’t catch all 10 of the Best Picture nominees… only got 8.

Anyway, here’s the full list of my predictions. Correct predictions will be marked with “★”.

Best Motion Picture of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Coda
Actual Winner: Coda

Achievement in Directing ★
Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actual Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role ★
Predicted Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Actual Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role ★
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Actual Winner: Will Smith, King Richard

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role ★
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Actual Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role ★
Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur, Coda
Actual Winner: Troy Kotsur, Coda

Adapted Screenplay ★
Predicted Winner: Siân Heder, Coda
Actual Winner: Siân Heder, Coda

Original Screenplay ★
Predicted Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Actual Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Achievement in Cinematography ★
Predicted Winner:  Greig Fraser, Dune
Actual Winner: Greig Fraser, Dune

Achievement in Costume Design ★
Predicted Winner: Jenny Beavan, Cruella
Actual Winner: Jenny Beavan, Cruella

Achievement in Film Editing ★
Predicted Winner: Joe Walker, Dune
Actual Winner: Joe Walker, Dune

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling ★
Predicted Winner: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Actual Winner: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Achievement in Production Design ★
Predicted Winner: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune
Actual Winner: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score) ★
Predicted Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dune
Actual Winner: Hans Zimmer, Dune

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Predicted Winner: Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto
Actual Winner: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, “No Time to Die,” No Time To Die

Achievement in Sound ★
Predicted Winner: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, Dune
Actual Winner: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, Dune

Achievement in Visual Effects ★
Predicted Winner: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, Dune
Actual Winner: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Encanto
Actual Winner: Encanto

Best Documentary Feature ★
Predicted Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Actual Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Best International Feature Film of the Year ★
Predicted Winner: Drive My Car
Actual Winner: Drive My Car

Best Animated Short Film
Predicted Winner: Robin Robin
Actual Winner: The Windshield Wiper

Best Documentary Short Subject ★
Predicted Winner: The Queen of Basketball
Actual Winner: The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short Film ★
Predicted Winner: The Long Goodbye
Actual Winner: The Long Goodbye

Review – The Tomorrow War

⭐⭐

Rating: 2 out of 5.

This review contains spoilers

A few weeks back, Chris Pratt’s Instagram story promised me that The Tomorrow War was going to be my new favorite movie of all time. Now obviously I didn’t really believe him. But given Pratt’s charm, a competent director, and the $200 million price tag, I at least expected a fun Independence Day-esque popcorn flick. Instead, The Tomorrow War is a bland and uneven sci-fi bust.

Boiled down, The Tomorrow War is a time travel movie. 30ish years in the future, Earth is badly losing a war to alien invaders. The future humans’ plan: draft soldiers from the past and–through some barely-explained technolgoy–bring them to the future to fight their war. It’s an interesting concept and the film’s explanation of how they select draftees is actually pretty clever. The only people sent back in time are ones who haven’t been born yet, and the only ones sent to the future are ones who are already dead by then. It’s a pretty clever way to avoid certain time-travel paradoxes and sets up a promising mystery of how Pratt’s character meets an untimely fate.

But that’s about as far as the sensible logic goes. The movie makes it pretty clear that soldiers from the future can come back to the present, a time well before the alien war has started. Yet none of these soldiers seem to have any intention on preventing the war. You know, the most obvious and probably the easiest solution. I wanted to give the movie the benefit of the doubt. Maybe they’ve already tried that, maybe there’s a weird butterfly effect, or maybe the screenwriter just didn’t want to drive through Terminator territory. But no, eventually it’s revealed that bringing an alien poison back to the present day is the secret grand plan after all!

Still, decent action movies can overcome dumb plot logic through interesting character development. The audience learns pretty quickly that Pratt’s family-man character has a strained relationship with his own absent father, a mistake he’s determined not to make. Once he makes the jump to the future, he meets his now adult daughter who informs him that he eventually leaves his wife and daughter, causing another rift in the family. Add in the fact that his character soon dies in his natural timeline, and you’ve got a pretty compelling character-driven drama.

Unfortunately this, the most interesting aspect of the movie, is almost immediately dismissed. As soon as it’s set up, we learn that it was a car accident that kills him. The reasons for leaving his family go unanswered. And his relationship with his father is repaired by teaming up to kick some alien ass. It’s a ton of potential completely undermined by quick, convenient, and incomplete storytelling.

The movie does get a few things right. Chris Pratt continues to show that he has what it takes to be a leading man and grow beyond his goofball persona. The supporting cast makes the most of what they’re given, particularly J.K. Simmons as the estranged father and Sam Richardson as maybe the only one with a complete character arc. And the action is solid, especially in the third act. It’s a shame this big-budget movie was relegated to the small-screen. Sometimes dumb movies are just more fun and forgvable when seen in a loud, crowded theater.

The Tomorrow War is streaming on Amazon Prime Video.

93rd Academy Awards Predictions

2020 was a weird year–no need to elaborate further. I think that’s going to translate to a weird, jumbled group of winners and a few notable upsets. Expect the biggest awards of the night to each go to a different movie. As always, my predictions are below and I’ll update with the actual winners as the night goes on.

Best Picture
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Actual Winner: Nomadland
Nomadland seems to be the overwhelming favorite to win. It’s garnered the most critical praise and has racked up an impressive list of awards already. And while the Academy has definitely embraced smaller indie pictures recently (see Moonlight and Parasite), Chicago 7 just seems to check off more of the boxes Best Picture winners seem to have. It’s well-crafted; it’s well acted; it’s political but not radical; it’s historical but timely. I think we’re going to see a Chicago 7 win a la Argo, Spotlight, or Green Book.

Best Director★
Predicted Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Actual Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Considering how many different hands Chicago 7 passed through before it was finally made, there’s no way Best Director is going to my Best Picture prediction. With Nomadland, Chloe Zhao does an incredible job crafting a simple, but elegant film with big emotions. Having won virtually every other director award in the industry this year, she’s getting the Oscar too.

Best Actress
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Actual Winner: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Continuing my prediction that the biggest awards of the night are all going to different films, this is Promising Young Woman‘s best shot at an Oscar. The main character is both a traumatized, grieving friend and an anti-creep vigilante, while hiding both from those around her. Carey Mulligan is practically playing three different roles simultaneously, and she absolutely pulls it off.

Best Actor★
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Actual Winner: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Chadwick Boseman was bound to win an Oscar at some point, but with his tragic death last year, this will be his last chance. It’s certainly not a sympathy vote though, as it’ll be well-earned for his performance in Ma Rainey. But he also deserves it as a cap on an iconic, far-too-short career.

Best Supporting Actress★
Predicted Winner: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Actual Winner: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Probably the most memorable performance of any this year.

Best Supporting Actor★
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Actual Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Rounding out my theory that the top 6 awards are all going to different films, Daniel Kaluuya seems to be the standout among the nominees. Normally two actors nominated in the same category for the same film cancel each other out, and no disrespect to LaKeith Stanfield, but Kaluuya is the star of this movie.